PSG and Real Madrid with a theoretically more demanding start in the Champions League

PSG faces a particularly challenging path in the Champions League this season, being considered the team with the greatest difficulties among the top seeds.

The new format of the competition, which is also less favorable for reigning champions Real Madrid, presents a significant test for the French club. Under the leadership of Luis Enrique and featuring notable players like Vitinha, João Neves, Danilo, Gonçalo Ramos, and Nuno Mendes, PSG is determined to claim their first-ever Champions League title. However, they will have to navigate a difficult group stage that includes formidable opponents such as Manchester City and Bayern Munich, two of Europe’s most successful and consistent clubs.

The new Champions League format has increased the number of teams from 32 to 36 and eliminated the traditional group stage. Instead, all teams play in a single league table, with each team playing eight matches against opponents of varying strengths. Only the top eight teams in this league phase will automatically advance to the round of 16. Teams finishing between ninth and 24th place will have to compete in a two-legged playoff to secure the remaining eight spots in the knockout stage. This change increases the level of competition and places greater emphasis on each match's outcome, making it crucial for teams to perform consistently well throughout the phase.

For PSG, in addition to their matches against Manchester City and Bayern Munich, they will also host Atlético Madrid and visit Arsenal. Both of these teams have strong squads and experienced managers, making PSG’s task even more difficult. They will also face other competitive sides such as PSV, Salzburg, Girona, and Stuttgart, all of whom have the potential to pose significant challenges.

Real Madrid, under the management of Carlo Ancelotti, who is aiming for his 16th Champions League title, will also face a tough set of fixtures. They will host Borussia Dortmund and AC Milan, both teams with rich European histories and capable of competing at the highest level. Additionally, Real Madrid will travel to face Liverpool, featuring Portuguese forward Diogo Jota, and Atalanta, who they recently defeated in the UEFA Super Cup. Matches against Salzburg, Lille, Stuttgart, and Brest will also test Real Madrid’s depth and resilience over the competition's duration.

FC Barcelona, another traditional powerhouse now led by German coach Hansi Flick, will host Bayern Munich and Atalanta and will be challenged away at Dortmund and Benfica. Meanwhile, Liverpool, with Dutch coach Arne Slot at the helm, will face tough home matches against Real Madrid and Bayer Leverkusen, as well as challenging away fixtures against Leipzig and Milan, the latter featuring Portuguese star Rafael Leão.

Bayern Munich, with new coach Vincent Kompany from Belgium, seems to have a slightly easier schedule, with key home matches against PSG and Benfica and a trip to Barcelona. The competition’s new format ensures that every match is critical, and even the most historically successful clubs cannot afford any slip-ups.

Regarding the Portuguese teams, Sporting CP and Benfica, their fortunes in the draw differed significantly. Sporting, the defending champions of Portugal, appears to have a more favorable schedule, hosting Manchester City, Arsenal, Lille, and Bologna, and traveling to Leipzig, Club Brugge, PSV, and Sturm Graz. Benfica, on the other hand, faces a challenging set of fixtures, with home matches against Barcelona, Atlético Madrid, Bologna, and Feyenoord, and away games against European heavyweights Bayern Munich, Juventus, Red Star Belgrade, and Monaco.

UEFA simulations suggest that 17.1 points could be enough to secure a spot in the top eight and avoid the playoffs, while reaching the top 24 might only require two wins and two draws, or around 7.6 points. This means that teams must carefully strategize to ensure they collect enough points to either secure direct advancement or at least a playoff spot.

For the first time, Girona from Spain and Slovan Bratislava from Slovakia have qualified for the final phase of the competition, marking a historic achievement for both clubs.

This new era of the Champions League, beginning on September 17 and running until the end of January, will bring more intense competition with more matches between the top clubs. This revamped format promises to deliver thrilling football action, with every team aiming to make their mark. The Champions League final is scheduled for May 31, 2025, at the Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany, where the two best teams will compete for the prestigious trophy.